What are they seeing that I'm not?

Let's do some role play, shall we?




You follow college basketball and you write about it. And you are making predictions about who is getting into March Madness. And you are looking at the Mountain West.

"Hey, San Diego State is #1 in the conference right now. All the teams basically suck, so the conference will be a single bid deal. Ok, SDSU will get in. Next conference!"

But wait! They lost to Cal, St. Mary's, Arizona and Northern Colorado at HOME. They haven't started their road trips to places like BYU and UNLV yet, teams that have traditionally rock the bells on the Aztecs. And trap games with TCU and New Mexico await.

If I had to pick the MWC right now it would look like this...

Auto bid: BYU (deeper and WAAAAAAAAY more talented than any other MWC team right now)
Bubble: UNLV and New Mexico (The Running Rebels for their strong conference tournament play and UNM for a somewhat strong schedule)

Don't get me wrong, I'm a HUGE Aztec fan. See the front page of my blog? But I'm a realist. Maybe a disappointed realist. So when I see other people put SDSU in... It makes me pause. Maybe they are right. I could be wrong. I could be a Paladin with 18 charisma. And I would be happy with that.

But the numbers and history are showing me something different.

UPDATE: SDSU 56, BYU 59!


Kinda says it all.